= Such Stupid Things =

A statistic I keep seeing during World Cup coverage is the win-loss-tie record of teams that score first. Not counting the ongoing Brazil - 'Stralia match, it currently stands at 19-2-2. The commentators repeatedly bring this up to argue, I suppose, that the first goal is a complete momentum killer for the scored-upon team and that the game is more or less over at that point. Nineteen-2-2 seems commanding, indeed, but I think it's a little misleading...

Most of those 19 wins come from shutouts - it wasn't that the losing team lost momentum or morale or self-confidnece, they were simply outplayed. The more appropriate statistic, I think, would be the win-loss-tie record of teams that score first in games in which both teams score. By my count, that record stands at 4-2-2, which isn't quite as intimidating. If both teams are strong enough to score a goal, the team that scores first wins only half the time.

Obviously, n is low at this point, but I'll be paying attention as the body of statistical evidence grows. If I had an intern I'd have him or her sort through records from past World Cups as well. Anyone interested?